CAN LEICESTER CITY DEFEND THEIR PREMIER LEAGUE TITLE AND COMPETE IN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE?

After the dust has settled on their stunning triumph, Claudio Ranieri and his team will soon turn their attention to next season and the added demands of European football

As the champagne flows and celebrations erupt, no-one at Leicester City will be thinking about next season. They have lived in the moment throughout their unlikely title charge, taking every step one at a time, and now can enjoy the most remarkable feat in modern football history in much the same way. In a league filled with sides who spend bigger, earn more and hit harder, Leicester have out-foxed everyone. But soon they will have to prepare for an even more daunting challenge.
Though Claudio Ranieri will rightly savour the spoils of his crowning achievement in three decades of management, he is pragmatic enough to know that this current side stand little chance of defending their title. “We are here because the favourites have slipped up a lot and this will not happen next season. Our reality should be to finish in the top 10.” It is rare to see a side of Leicester’s stature win the title, it is rarer still to see a champion target merely a top-half finish.
The fear already is that the club’s best players – particularly the triumvirate of PFA Player of the Year Riyad Mahrez, 22-goal frontman Jamie Vardy and Claude Makelele imitator N’Golo Kante – will be poached in the summer, probably by the wounded giants that have failed so spectacularly. Ranieri hopes that will not be the case and, having warded off January suitors, insists “they are the first I want to keep” in the off-season. But already speculation abounds, with rumours of release clauses and verbal agreements.
Regardless of whether that trio remain, Leicester will need to be proactive in the transfer market. A Champions League campaign and increased expectation means Ranieri will no longer be able to plough his resources into just one competition. This season, elimination in the League Cup to Championship side Hull City was seen as a silver lining, the removal of a distraction in what initially was thought to be a fight for survival. Next season it would be considered an embarrassment.
That total focus on the Premier League has allowed Ranieri to stick with virtually the same side throughout the campaign. The inclusions of Jeffrey Schlupp and Leonardo Ulloa against Swansea City were only the 26th and 27th changes Ranieri made to his starting XI across the whole season, by some distance the lowest in the Premier League. For context, in April alone Jurgen Klopp made 42 alterations to his starting XI. Last season’s champions Chelsea, who were considered to be over-played and under-rested, made 86 changes en route to the title.
So Leicester need reinforcements and a deeper squad, but they also must consider upgrading areas of their starting XI. Jose Mourinho has often spoken of the need to add new faces even to the most successful of sides, predominantly to prevent aspects of the team’s play from becoming stale and predictable. Ironically, of the seven summer signings he made in his final year at Chelsea, only Pedro could be considered genuine competition for a first-team spot.
The problem that presents itself for Ranieri is that his side’s greatest strength is how settled they are as a unit. The balance of the squad is virtually perfect, every player knows their role and there is an immensely strong bond, so any new arrivals risk throwing that out of sync. Even now, the Italian’s biggest signing, Gokhan Inler, is itching to make an escape, saying he feels “sick” at his lack of pitch time. A few more players might come down with that particular bug next season.
Nevertheless, the funds will be in place for Leicester to offer their best performers new deals and bring in players of the calibre that make their stars want to stay. Chairman Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha’s personal wealth has soared in the years since he took over and he is now worth $2.8 billion (£1.9bn) according to Forbes. That is a 1300 per cent increase over the last decade and ranks him as Thailand’s fourth wealthiest businessman.
Meanwhile, the club can expect to rake in £90.9 million in Premier League prize money (and the same again next season for simply staying in the division when the new TV deal kicks in), earn around £30m from participating in the Champions League and quadruple their current shirt and stadium sponsorship deals. Leicester may have arrived at the top table of European football well ahead of schedule, but they certainly aren’t plucky underdogs anymore.
It will be interesting to see how Leicester’s scouting setup, one of the best in England, respond to their new-found allure and boosted bank balance. They have dealt mainly in bargain buys so far, notably plucking Mahrez from Ligue 2 side Le Havre for just £350,000, but head of recruitment Steve Walsh and his team can aim much higher now – assuming he is still there of course, with Leicester’s backroom staff as in-demand as their players.
Top of the agenda will be players with European experience. Of their most-used XI, just five players have any European experience at all, amounting to 80 appearances between them – last season’s midfield general Esteban Cambiasso had 97 on his own.
Playing against so many contrasting and alien styles could catch Leicester out, especially with European football played at a slower, more methodical tempo. Particularly at the King Power, they have always played matches on their terms, imposing their high-intensity, hugely direct style amid a frenzy of clappers. They have been afforded the space they crave as teams played into their hands and initially undervalued their threat, while the usual suspects that ought to have overpowered them were stripped of their confidence. The likes of Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund will not be so kind.
There is also a fear that playing such reactive and extremely disciplined football cannot be sustained over a long period. If you are under siege long enough, eventually you will buckle, while their players – especially those attracting interest from elsewhere – may soon crave a style that is more befitting of champions. Leicester have the third worst possession stats (44.7%) and worst passing accuracy (70%) in the Premier League.
Of course, prioritising defence has not stopped Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid from remaining a force – a side increasingly likened to Leicester. But there are differences: Atleti are a far more technical team, while one of the Argentine’s greatest accomplishments is being able to continually extract so much unwavering commitment and work rate season after season. Simeone’s style also feels progressive and fresh in Spain, a renegade approach in a league dominated by tiki-taka, while Ranieri’s is a throwback.
Tottenham’s quarter-final run aside, Premier League clubs have generally fared poorly in their maiden Champions League campaigns. Everton failed to get past qualifying, while it took Manchester City three attempts to get out of the group stage. Ipswich Town offer a cautionary tale too, having qualified ahead of schedule for the Uefa Cup. They made the third round, beating Inter in the first leg but losing on aggregate, but were unable to marry the demands of both domestic and European football and were relegated a year after finishing fifth.
Leicester will have to adapt to playing midweek games, both in terms of managing a higher workload and having reduced time on the training pitch to prepare for domestic matches. As well as enjoying more 3pm Saturday kick-offs than any other side before emerging as genuine title contenders, the Foxes were handed just 10 weekday games all season. Their nearest challengers, Spurs, have played twice that number despite largely underperforming in the cups.
A man who played for both those clubs perhaps sums up the road ahead best. “This season will be a one-off. Next season just depends,” says a thoughtful Gary Lineker. “They will struggle to keep one or two of their stars and it’ll be back to normal life - but who cares? If they win the league, I don't think any Leicester fan will be overly-bothered. They just want to live this moment of magic.”
Next season will be a mammoth one in the history of Leicester, then, and the odds are firmly stacked against them. But that has always been the case. They risk losing their best players, are likely to be overtaken by the Premier League’s rueful elite and are ill-equipped to deal with the demands of European football. But this side strive in adversity. The bookies have learned their lesson – you won’t get odds longer than 100/1 on Ranieri lifting the Champions League – so perhaps so should we. Write Leicester off at your peril, this season or next.

Source - goal.com